Zubau verdoppelt sich – mehr große PV-Parks
Die Marktforschungssparte des amerikanischen Consultants Navigant Research aus Boulder, Colorado, äußert in ihrem neuen Ausblick Solar PV Market Forecasts die Erwartung, dass die Photovoltaik bis 2020 in den meisten Regionen der Welt Netzparität erreicht und der jährliche Zubau sich bis dahin mit 73,4 GW (von jetzt 35.9 GW) mehr als verdoppelt. PV-Solarstrom kostet demnach spätestens 2020 ohne Förderung gleich viel oder weniger als der konventionelle Strom aus der Steckdose.
Der PV-Markt wird sich laut Navigant in verschiedene Richtungen entwickeln, beispielsweise von dezentralen Solarstromanlagen eher hin zu größeren PV-Parks. Der berücksichtigt politische Aspekte und Markttreiber, schätzt auch die durchschnittlichen Installationskosten im Zeitraum bis 2020 ein.
100 GW Photovoltaik-Zubau bis 2020 in China
„Fallende Preise für PV-Module eröffnen neue Märkte für dezentrale PV. Das hilft auch, dass die Technologie in hochpreisigen Strommärkten schneller Netzparität erreicht,“ sagt Dexter Gauntlett, Senior Research Analyst von Navigant Research. Die Asien-Pazifik-Region wird im Laufe der Vorhersage-Periode Hauptregionalmarkt für PV-Anlagen werden, angeführt von China, wo bis 2020 mehr als 100 GW PV gebaut werden.“
Die englische Mitteilung: Annual Worldwide Solar PV Installations Will Double by 2020
November 8, 2013
Despite waning government support, the threat of international trade wars, and high-profile bankruptcies, the solar photovoltaic (PV) market continues to grow. Solar PV technology costs have steadily declined, and pathways to further cost reduction are being pursued. By the end of this decade, solar PV is expected to be cost competitive – even without subsidies –with retail electricity prices in a significant portion of the world. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, annual installations of new solar PV capacity will more than double, in terms of capacity, by 2020, growing from 35.9 gigawatts (GW) in 2013 to 73.4 GW in 2020.
“Lower prices for solar PV modules are opening up new markets for distributed PV, while also helping the technology reach grid parity more quickly in high-cost retail electricity markets,” says Dexter Gauntlett, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The Asia Pacific region is expected to be the leading regional market for solar PV installations throughout the forecast period, led by China, where more than 100 GW of solar PV will be deployed by 2020.”
As the industry matures, the market will evolve in several ways. While installation types vary by region, there is a general shift expected toward non-distributed solar PV systems as a larger percentage of all solar PV installed capacity, according to the report. Distributed systems will account for less than half of all installations in 2014, and non-distributed systems will represent more than half of the market through 2020.
The report, “Solar PV Market Forecasts”, provides solar PV installed capacity and revenue forecasts through 2020, segmented by distributed (<1 MW) and non-distributed (>1 MW) systems, broken down by region and by selected countries. Policy issues and market drivers are detailed for each region, along with average solar PV installation prices over the forecast period. The report also includes a detailed discussion of key inflection points that will help shape the solar PV market over the next several years. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
->Quelle(n): solarserver.de; navigantresearch.com/newsroom; navigantresearch.com/Executive Summary; navigant.com/about