China verdoppelt Energiebedarf bis 2030

China’s power sector heads towards a cleaner future

China’s power capacity will more than double by 2030 and renewables including large hydro will account for more than half of new plants, eroding coal’s dominant share and attracting investment of $1.4 trillion. China’s power sector carbon emissions could be in decline by 2027.

Beijing, 27 August 2013 – China’s power sector is expected to go through significant changes through to 2030, according to a new report released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China will add 88GW of new power plants annually from now until 2030, which is equivalent to building the UK’s total generating capacity every year.

China is already the world’s largest power generator and its largest carbon emitter. Over the next two decades China could add more than 1,500GW of new generating capacity and invest more than $3.9 trillion in power sector assets. However, as a result of shifts in generation mix, China’s total power sector emissions could start declining as early as 2027.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysed China’s power sector based on four scenarios. In the central scenario, dubbed ‘New Normal’, China’s total power generation capacity more than doubles by 2030, with renewables including large hydro contributing more than half of all new capacity additions.

This, together with an increase in gas-based generation, would drive the share of coal-fired power generation capacity down from 67% in 2012 to 44% in 2030. In absolute terms, however, even in this scenario, coal will continue to grow rapidly until 2022, adding on average 38GW per year – equal to three large coal plants every month. It will then grow at a much lower rate, installing on average only 10GW per year until 2030. Carbon emissions and local environmental problems resulting from coal, such as poor air quality will likely continue to worsen in the next 10-15 years despite the shift towards cleaner energy sources.
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